Det græske parlamentsvalg på søndag d. 6. maj bliver efter alt at dømme en katastrofe for de to regeringspartier PASOK (socialdemokratisk) og Nea Dimokratia (konservativt), som er de eneste der støtter EU/IMF programmet for genopretning af den græske økonomi. Regeringen har forbudt opinionsmålinger de sidste 14 dage før valget, men hemmelige målinger giver de to partier en tilslutning på omkring kun ca. 30% - Greek Elections – Secret Opinion Polls: Anger and Panic
Tabel (kilde: Credit Suisse): Exhibit 3: Overview of the main political parties in Greece
En udførlig gennemgang (kilde: Credit Suisse) af det græske valg og dets konsekvenser kan læses på ZeroHedge: Previewing The First Of Many Greek Elections:
This weekend the Greeks will go to the polls - and with support for the two main parties (New Democracy - center-right; and PASOK - socialist) at historical lows (and the share of protest and extremist votes at historical highs) - is Greece about to become Belgium. This is likely exactly what the bankers want - a relatively ungoverned nation to pilfer - but as the WSJ reports, against a backdrop of economic crisis, a 'failed' election is expected to usher in such political instability that officials from the country's major parties are planning for another possible election within months.
At the moment, New Democracy is widely expected to win the elections, without however securing the majority in parliament and even in the case of a coalition with PASOK the two parties would not have a majority in parliament. The problem, of course, is that many of the extreme-left and extreme-right minority parties (who are likely to get seats) advocate the renegotiation of agreements with official sector creditors, a rejection of austerity measures, or even leaving the euro altogether. Credit Suisse provides a succinct preview of the Greek elections and three scenarios (bad, badder, baddest) that the post-election EU/IMF-dependent nation faces.
De tre scenarier, som Credit Suisse opererer med:
- Scenario 1: New Democracy – PASOK coalition. This is the most likely scenario, in our view. Despite their pre-election announcements – in light of the international pressure and the lack of other alternatives – the two parties are likely to form a coalition government. Based on the poll numbers – if nothing fundamentally changes – this would be a rather weak coalition. It is expected to implement the EU/IMF programme, however frictions between the coalition members are likely. It is also expected to face strong opposition by the anti-bailout parties, especially if it does not have the majority of the votes (lack of strong popular mandate). It would be a rather fragile government, whose stability would be largely determined from the economic outlook and the progress of the reforms, in our view.
- Scenario 2: Broader coalition with the participation of other parties as well. Either due to a lack of parliamentary majority of the above coalition or the need to enlarge the popular base, a smaller party might be asked to join the coalition, e.g. the Democratic Left or the Democratic Alliance. This will allow for a stronger parliamentary majority, but the dynamics are not as straightforward. Taking into consideration the different programme goals of the members of the coalition – especially in the case of the Democratic Left – the government might not be flexible enough to implement the agreed reforms and a lot of the measures might have to be watered down, in order to be passed in parliament.
- Scenario 3: New elections. If there is unwillingness from the New Democracy party to form a coalition government or attempts to do so fail, then new elections will follow suit. This outcome would be disruptive, at least in the short term, and questions regarding the implementation of the EU/IMF programme and Greece’s existence in the euro will emerge.
Se også Keep Talking Greece: Greek Elections Scenario: After May 6th, Again on June 17th?
